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Only two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold forecast – going beyond the winner overall, but precinct by precinct. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a well-known figure this year for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his highly detailed prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious although failed to predict the independent candidate’s solid showing – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for clever terms. He highlighted, as an example, the split between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and Wall Street Journal surpass the New York Times” in readership and most voters leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were adding around 200,000 votes into the system frequently! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate led the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but there were two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for him, where the opponent would have basically increasing his support from the Democratic primary. But Mamdani gained 500,000 votes to his initial base, and that’s a huge reason why he won. He went out and massively expanded his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the alliance that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and it’s people facing cost pressures. He gained significantly with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his core of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and immigrant groups. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, young, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Islamic voters. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president previously backed Zohran now. But it’s not that he was gaining Caucasian laborers and Maga voters.

Turnout and Effects

A major development of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought it could exceed 2 million, but it reached 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now it appears he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200K ballots left to report at that time. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I wish he does so then none can claim the Republican was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win a single precinct in any area. Including one neighborhood in the borough, which is like an highly conservative neighborhood. That really was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and then added many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like Astoria or Greenpoint that have more older white ethnic folks. There, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed some opposition. But no, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are neighborhoods with many non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are newcomers from the former Soviet Union in southern Brooklyn, who were strongly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed crazy narrative-busters on this one, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the Upper West Side by big margins.

Long-Term Significance

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will the commie corridor serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that some of the biggest figures from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will emerge from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in America – because they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.